Scouting Notes: Penn State

Indiana basketball is looking to avoid a fourth straight loss, in addition to a season sweep to Penn State, as it travels to take on the Nittany Lions on Saturday.

Penn State is in its first season under Mike Rhoades and enter this matchup 13-14 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions come in ranked 91st nationally in offensive efficiency with a rating of 111.5. Defensively, they have a 102.7 rating which ranks 104th nationally. Overall, Penn State is 94th nationally in the KenPom ratings.

Here is a deep dive into some of the challenges Penn State could give the Indiana basketball program.

Key Players

Penn State leans heavily on point guard Ace Baldwin — a very dynamic playmaker. Baldwin is a quick lefty guard who is a terrific passer and sets the tone offensively in terms of pacing and leadership. Baldwin is averaging 5.6 assists per game, ranking third in the Big Ten in assists and fourth in assist percentage. Baldwin does a great job of passing his teammates open and finding the open lanes through opposing defenses. He can also score too despite being a streaky shooter. Over the last six games, starting with the first matchup with Indiana, Baldwin is shooting 40.7 percent on 1.8 made 3s per game. On the season, he shooting just 33.9 percent. Baldwin typically tries to get into the paint and score at the rim, but his 3pt shot has become more of a weapon as of late. Where Baldwin is at his best is in the open floor. Defensively, he sets the tone. He averages 2.8 steals per game — sixth nationally — and leads the Big Ten in steal percentage. He is terrific as an on ball or off ball defender, so the Indiana basketball ball handlers need to keep live ball turnovers to a minimum.

In the front court is Zach Hicks, someone who has been stepping up big for the Nittany Lions. After just five double-figure scoring games in the first 21 gams of the season, he’s scored 13+ in six straight, averaging 14.7 points per game. Hicks is strictly a perimeter player, however. 75.5 percent of his shot attempts are 3s. In the last six games, he’s shooting 47.4 percent on three made 3s per game, a far cry from 29.3 percent in the first 21. Hicks has good size but is mainly just a big shooting wing at this point. Hicks isn’t going to actively look to attack off of the dribble. Indiana needs to be aware of him on all dribble-drive action and make sure he doesn’t get hot from three.

Qudus Wahab headlines the front court players, however. Wahab is a physical center who has great size and length. He’s most effective right at the rim offensively, however, with very little range outside of about 10 feet. He’s best as a roller on pick and roll sets and on offensive rebound put backs. Wahab ranks third in the Big Ten in offensive rebound percentage and also averages 2.7 offensive rebounds per game. He has three or more offensive rebounds in 15 games this year. Defensively, Wahab ranks seventh in block percentage and is a really effective rim protector. Because of his frame, he pushes opposing big men off of their spots and forces a typical layup into more of a hook shot.

Nicholas Kern is a versatile forward who is extremely athletic and can score in a variety of ways at the rim.  Kern sees almost all of his action inside the paint and uses his jumping ability and his length to finish at the rim and above defenders. Kern is not a threat from the perimeter, with just six made threes in 92 career games. When he’s attacking the rim, he’s looking to dunk the ball. But, most of his action is off of the ball, with little impact off of the dribble. Indiana basketball needs to keep an eye on him as he’s a very good cutter. Kern’s length allows him to switch on multiple ball handlers defensively. He’s averaging 15.3 points over the last four games.

D’Marco Dunn has been put in the starting lineup over the last month for the Nittany Lions. The North Carolina transfer has been a really effective two-way player for the Nittany Lions. At 6-foot-4 and 185 pounds, he has great size and frame on both ends of the floor. Dunn can play both on and off the ball and has nine double-digit scoring games this year. He’s shooting 34.7 percent from three this year but if a capable shooter if open. He’s made at least one three in seven straight games. Most of his jumpers are going to come off of the catch or in late shot clock situations. If he has the ball in his hands, he’s typically looking to attack — with his drives likely coming from the wing.

Puff Johnson is another UNC transfer who plays a significant role for Penn State. Johnson is a hybrid forward who likes to play bigger than he is — frame wise. Johnson will likely play a lot of small-ball four but is more impactful making high-energy plays. He has always had the ability to be a streaky shooter from the perimeter but has never taken the next step as a consistent perimeter threat.

Another part of the rotation is guard Jameel Brown. After going scoreless in 10 of the first 15 games of the season, he’s scored in double-figures in twice and 7+ points in four of the last six games. Over that span, he’s shooting 40.6 percent from three on 2.2 made 3s per game. He’s a long, athletic guard who is going to be strictly a perimeter player. 29 of his 35 made field goals this year have been 3s. He had four 3s against Indiana in the first matchup.

Trending: After missing out on Derik Queen, what’s next for Indiana basketball and where does it turn? Here’s how it could force Mike Woodson’s hand

Key Tendencies

Offensively, Penn State runs through its backcourt every possession. It’s clear Ace Baldwin is the motor of the team — both scoring and playmaking. Because of his quickness, Penn State likes to get out in transition. Despite the uptempo pace for Penn State, it’s not a team that will turn the ball over on a large scale — averaging jus 10.9 turnovers per game with a turnover rate that ranks 71st nationally. Penn State has five players attempting 2.4 3s or more per game but as a team, it converts on just 33 percent — ranked 227th. Regardless of who’s in the backcourt for Indiana basketball, they need to force the guards out of the paint and limit their driving ability.

Penn State is a high-pressure defense and is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers. On the season, the Nittany Lions rank 18th in the country in forced turnovers per game and also do an even better job at converting off of turnovers. They turn 15.3 turnovers per game into 15.9 points off turnovers per game — the best in the Big Ten. The ball pressure from its perimeter players force a lot of live ball turnovers, ranking 24th nationally in steal rate and turnover rate. While there isn’t a great amount of rim protection behind them, Qudus Wahab does a suitable job at forcing difficult shots at the rim. Indiana needs to do a good job at getting the ball in the paint and feeding the big men. Penn State doesn’t have the front court talent or depth to match up with Indiana basketball. Because of that, the foul rate for Penn State ranks 12th in the Big Ten, allowing opponents to get to the line 20 times per game. If this is a guard-oriented game for Indiana, it’s not going to end well. The Hoosiers absolutely need to limit live ball turnovers in order to get back and set their defense up.

Overall, this is a game that Indiana has more overall talent in, but it’ll be a matter of if it has the mental toughness to withstand the gritty play of Penn State, much like the first matchup. Indiana needs to offset the backcourt advantage for the Nittany Lions with doing what it does best — protecting the paint and scoring in the paint. Indiana basketball should be able to win the rebound battle, especially offensively with Penn State giving up nearly 12 offensive rebounds per game and ranked worst in the Big Ten in offensive rebound rate from a defensive perspective.

Projected Starters

G – Ace Baldwin (Senior; 6-0, 190)

Stats: 13.9 ppg, 5.6 apg, 2.8 spg

G – D’Marco Dunn (Junior; 6-5, 185)

Stats: 7.1 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 34.7% 3pt

F – Zach Hicks (Junior; 6-7, 185)

Stats: 8.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg

F – Nicholas Kern (Junior; 6-6, 190)

Stats: 8.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg

C – Qudus Wahab (Senior; 6-11, 240)

Stats: 9.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.6 bpg

Key Notes

• A win for Penn State would give it the second regular-season series sweep of the Hoosiers in program history and the first since since 2009
• Four of Penn State’s seven conference wins have been comeback wins from double-digit deficits
• The Nittany Lions lead the Big ten in forced turnovers at 15.8 per game
• Penn State leads the Big Ten in three-point percentage defense — just 31.1 percent for opponents. They have held opponents to 26.8 percent in their wins

SEE ALSO: Another blowout loss comes with boos from the home crowd. The season is off the rails for Indiana basketball — if it wasn’t already

Make sure to follow Hoosier Illustrated, part of the Full Ride Network, on Twitter @Indiana_FRN, Facebook and YouTube to stay up to date on all of the news, updates and coverage of Indiana University athletics. You can also listen to the Talking’ Bout the Hoosiers podcast on Spotify.

Looking for a place to get more Indiana content? Hoosier Illustrated has partnered with Tom Brady’s company ‘Autograph’ to streamline our coverage, so you can continue to do what you do best – follow IU sports. Use the CODE: Indianafr to get started today. For more info, you can start here.