Indiana basketball heads into its rivalry game with Purdue on Sunday afternoon, with both teams struggling. Indiana has lost eight of 10, while Purdue has lost three in a row.
Purdue enters Sunday’s matchup at 19-8 overall and 11-5 in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers rank 10th in offensive efficiency with a rating of 124.7. Defensively, they rank 44th overall with a 99.0 rating. Overall, Purdue is ranked 14th in KenPom’s ratings.
Here is a deep dive into some of the challenges Purdue could give the Indiana basketball program.
Key Players
While he’s not the leading scorer, Braden Smith is the heartbeat of the Boilermakers. He is equally as good at scoring, making plays for his teammates and defending — a reason why he’s one of the best players in the entire country. Smith is leading the Big Ten in assists, and second in the NCAA, and steals and uses both to set up his scoring. He’s a playmaker first, and a scorer second but can get hot in a hurry. He has nine 20+ point games and has six 20+ point games while shooting at least 50 percent from the field. Smith uses his strength and crafty finishing ability to score through and around defenders and that then sets up his ability to finish on the perimeter. What makes Smith so difficult to defend is his vision and IQ. Smith does a tremendous job at holding off defenders until the last second, allowing him multiple potential options and keeping the defense on their heels. While he can create off of the dribble, he is most lethal when it’s a high ball screen. Smith does a tremendous job at coming off of the screen with a far, looping path which allows him full vision inside the paint. He’ll use numerous ball fakes to create better passing lanes. The one negative in his game and something Indiana basketball will try to do is make him a jump shooter first. If he starts off from the perimeter with a few misses, he’s typically going to struggle — and struggle with his all around game. He has 12 games shooting above 50 percent and six of those games also result in double-digit assists. Purdue is 10-2 in those games. On the flip side, he has eight games where he’s shot below 40 percent. He only has two games with double-digit assists in those performances — and Purdue is just 6-4. In the past four games, Smith is shooting just 29.2 percent from three on six attempts a game.
One of the most improved players around the country is forward Trey Kaufman-Renn. Kaufman-Renn is not a threat from three and does most of his damage on the block. He has great footwork and a soft touch around the rim to finish through contact. He does a tremendous job sealing his defender and creating a great passing lane for his guards so all he has to do after getting the ball is drop step towards the basket. Part of his game that is significantly better this year is his patience when he gets the ball. He’s very deliberate on the block and with his increased ability to pass the ball, it’s a very difficult decision for opponents whether to double-team him or let him slowly back down the on-ball defender. He’s scored in double-figures every game this season and has been extremely consistent with his motor and efficiency — leading the conference in efficiency rating. While Smith is the motor of the team, Kaufman-Renn is the guy that the offense will run through — with the highest usage percentage in the Big Ten. While he’s not one of the leading rebounder in the league, his offensive rebounding ability is — ranking fourth in offensive rebounds and fourth in offensive rebound rate. He leads the Big Ten in scoring and has scored 20+ points in eight of the last nine games. Kaufman has struggled with fouls over the last few weeks, averaging nearly four a game over the last 10 games.
Alongside Smith is Fletcher Loyer. Loyer is a true knockdown shooter is his best playing off the ball — a perfect third option when Smith and Kaufman-Renn need the ball in their hands most. Loyer is averaging two made 3s a game and has made at least two 3s in 16 games. While his game starts with his ability to shoot, he’s developed more of an ability to create off of the dribble and while attacking the basket and finishing through contact. Indiana basketball needs to force him off the three-point line and make him a slasher. While he has become more aggressive, that’s the way to limit his scoring ability and limit Purdue’s offense.
On the wing is freshman CJ Cox. Cox is staring to emerge as an x-factor for Purdue with his ability to defend and be a consistent threat from the perimeter. After starting his season off making just 11 3s in the first 13 games, he’s settled in nicely with nine in the last five games, connecting on 41 percent. He has a quick and high release which makes him difficult to defend with his ability to get any shot off quick. Cox has explosive ability and has shown the ability to get going offensively, but he’s been widely inconsistent as well. He’s not overly tall but has great length and athleticism and is extremely quick with his hands and feet, getting in many passing lanes. He’s scored 8+ points in four of the last five games.
Playing next to Kaufman-Renn is veteran forward Caleb Furst. Furst has very good size and a firm frame that provides Purdue needed size in the paint without a true shot blocker this year. He hasn’t been a huge threat offensively this year but has shown more aggressiveness around the rim since being inserted into the starting lineup over the last 14 games. Furst is not going to be a threat from anywhere outside of the paint, however, and sees most of his work from offensive rebounds or easy opportunities at the rim off of a drive and kick. If Purdue uses him for high ball screens, Indiana basketball needs to double off of him on what would likely be Braden Smith, or at least provide a very hard hedge.
Myles Colvin comes off the bench and provides a very athletic punch on the perimeter. The 6-foot-5 guard has tremendous leaping ability and can finish above the rim at will. He’s an improved shooter but is very streaky — if he sees one go down, he’ll likely make a few more. Colvin will either be a double-digit scorer or provide very little, however, so it’s always an important first few possessions for him when he gets his first touches. He’s been held scoreless in five of the last eight games.
Camden Heide is another athletic wing who lives above the rim. At 6-foot-7, Heide has great size on the wing but it best in transition or flying in for an offensive rebound putback. After averaging 7.1 points per game in the first 11 games, he’s dropped to just 2.7 in the last 16 games and is just 6-of-29 from three in that span.
One of the more consistent bench players is Gicarri Harris — who can play both on and off the ball. He’s another athletic wing who has more of an ability to create for himself off the dribble.
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Key Tendencies
Purdue is a slow and deliberate team and that’s in part to opposing team’s inability to speed up Braden Smith. The Boilermakers go at his speed and he does a tremendous job controlling the tempo all night. They rank 296th in both average possession and 286th in adjusted tempo. With the ball largely in the hands of Smith and Kaufman-Renn, Purdue is going to get good looks from the floor and it shows with their 11th best field goal percentage and 32nd best assist rate, with an assist on 59.7 percent of made field goals. The Boilermakers will use tons of ball screens and handoffs for Smith to try to get him going downhill and that opens up the entire offense. Purdue is also a terrific three-point shooting team — shooting 37.7 percent — but only ranks 199th in three-point rate and 203rd in percent of points from 3s. Purdue will hurt teams who help off its shooters, but won’t specifically hunt 3s. Defensive communication for Indiana basketball is going to be a major point of emphasis — a part they have struggled with all year — as will IU’s ability to hedge on ball screens and force change of direction. Purdue has struggled to get to the free throw line over the recent three-game skid — shooting 31 fewer than opponents and fouling 9 more times per game. In the first 24 games this year, Purdue shot 122 more free throws than its opponents.
Defensively, Purdue has numerous wings and guards who can pressure the ball — leading to a 20.1 turnover rate for opposing teams in Big Ten play, ranked 2nd in the league. Most of those turnovers are live ball as well, allowing Purdue to get out in the open floor and utilize some of their versatility. Purdue leads the Big Ten in steal percent. They need to utilize strong ball pressure with their inability to defend the rim like the past, ranking 330th in block rate. Purdue ranks last in the Big Ten, averaging just 1.6 blocks per game.
Overall, while Purdue is still revolving around a dominant post player, it’s not the same dominance they had with Zach Edey. The Boilermakers don’t force much offensively and rarely are forced into something they don’t want in the half court. The issue, however, is the lack of playmaking if the ball is not in Braden Smith’s hands — something that is wearing him down towards the end of close games. IU will have the post advantage on Sunday again and needs to take full advantage of it. Indiana basketball had 20 turnovers in the first matchup and still had a chance down the stretch — but that’s a number that can’t be repeated on Sunday. IU outscored Purdue by 15 on 3s in the first matchup and out rebounded the Boilermakers.
Projected Starters
G – Braden Smith (Junior; 6-0, 180)
Stats: 16.1 ppg, 8.8 apg, 2.4 spg, 38.3% 3pt
G – Fletcher Loyer (Junior; 6-4, 180)
Stats: 13.7 ppg, 45.8% 3pt
G – CJ Cox (Freshman; 6-3, 200)
Stats: 6.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 41.4% 3pt
F – Trey Kaufman-Renn (Junior; 6-9, 230)
Stats: 19.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.5 apg
F – Caleb Furst (Senior; 6-10, 235)
Stats: 5.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg
Key Notes
- Purdue is 11-0 when holding opponents to 69 points or fewer and just 7-8 when teams score above 70 points
- Purdue has shot at least 50 percent from the field in 11 of 16 Big Ten games
- Since 2021-22, Purdue is 59-7 when forcing 10+ turnovers
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