BASKETBALL

Scouting Notes: Penn State

Published

3 months ago

February 2, 2024

Indiana basketball vs Penn State basketball

A deep dive into Penn State and some of the challenges it could give the Indiana basketball program in Saturday's matchup. (Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports)

Indiana basketball is back on the floor for its second straight home game, this time welcoming the Penn State Nittany Lions to Assembly Hall.

Penn State is in its first season under Mike Rhoades and enter this matchup 10-11 overall and 4-6 in Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions come in ranked 109th nationally in offensive efficiency with a rating of 109.6. Defensively, they have a 102.8 rating which ranks 108th nationally. Overall, Penn State is 102nd nationally in the KenPom ratings.

Here is a deep dive into some of the challenges Penn State could give the Indiana basketball program.

Coach Q&A: Indiana basketball head coach Mike Woodson previews Penn State matchup

Key Players

Kanye Clary leads the Nittany Lions and is one of the most effective scorers in the conference. The lefty guard has quick-twitch athleticism to his game and is extremely effective getting into the paint. Clary is a three-level scorer but uses his quick first step to get past defenders and finish in the paint or with a 15 foot pull-up jumper. Clary has a very nice floater that he uses when he gets one step inside the free throw line. The ball will start and end most possessions in his hand — fifth in the Big Ten in usage rate and fifth in points produced per game. While most of Clary’s work comes inside the three-point line, he’s still an effective shooter from the perimeter, connecting on 37.8 percent on 1.4 made 3s per game. Clary is going to be incredibly difficult to keep in front, especially if Xavier Johnson is out for Indiana basketball. The IU guards need to force Clary to be a perimeter player and a passer — because if he gets hot, he can beat nearly any team by himself. Clary has been dealing with an injury and missed PSU’s win over Rutgers and sources tell HoosierIllustrated.com that he’s been day-to-day.

In the backcourt with Clary is Ace Baldwin — another dynamic playmaker. Baldwin is another quick lefty guard who is a terrific passer and sets the tone offensively in terms of pacing and leadership. Baldwin is averaging 5.0 assists per game, ranking fourth in the Big Ten in assists and sixth in assist percentage. He is also not someone who turns the ball over at a high rate — holding a 2.38 assist to turnover ratio this season. Baldwin does a great job of passing his teammates open and finding the open lanes through opposing defenses. He can also score too despite being a streaky shooter. He typically tries to get into the paint and score at the rim, but he does have nine games with multiple made 3s this season. He’s shooting just 31.9 percent on 1.4 made 3s per game, however. Where Baldwin is at his best is in the open floor. Defensively, he sets the tone. He averages 2.9 steals per game — sixth nationally — and leads the Big Ten in steal percentage. He is terrific as an on ball or off ball defender, so the Indiana basketball ball handlers need to keep live ball turnovers to a minimum.

Qudus Wahab headlines the front court players. Wahab is a physical center who has great size and length. He’s most effective right at the rim offensively, however, with very little range outside of about 10 feet. He’s best as a roller on pick and roll sets and on offensive rebound put backs. Wahab ranks third in the Big Ten in offensive rebound percentage and also averages 2.7 offensive rebounds per game. He has three or more offensive rebounds in 13 games this year. Defensively, Wahab ranks eighth in block percentage and is a really effective rim protector. Because of his frame, he pushes opposing big men off of their spots and forces a typical layup into more of a hook shot. Kel’el Ware will need to win this matchup and match the physical play for Indiana basketball.

Nicholas Kern is versatile forward who is extremely athletic. Kern sees almost all of his action inside the paint and uses his jumping ability and his length to finish at the rim and above defenders. Kern is not a threat from the perimeter, with just four made threes in 86 career games. When he’s attacking the rim, he’s looking to dunk the ball. But, most of his action is off of the ball, with little impact off of the dribble. Indiana basketball needs to keep an eye on him as he’s a very good cutter. Kern’s length allows him to switch on multiple ball handlers defensively, averaging 1.9 steals per game.

In the front court with Kern and Wahab is Zach Hicks. Hicks is strictly a perimeter player, however. 79.7 percent of his shot attempts are 3s, making just 29.3 percent on 5.5 attempts per game. Hicks has good size but is mainly a big shooting wing at this point. Hicks isn’t going to actively look to attack off of the dribble, although he has good size to do so. Indiana needs to be aware of him on all dribble-drive action and make sure he doesn’t get hot from three. He was a 36.3 percent three-point shooter in two seasons with Temple before transferring to Penn State.

Off of the bench is a versatile guard in D’Marco Dunn. The North Carolina Transfer has been a really effective two-way player for the Nittany Lions. At 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds, he has great size and frame on both ends of the floor. Dunn can play both on and off the ball and has seven double-digit scoring games this year. He’s shooting just 33.3 percent from three this year but if a capable shooter if open. Most of his jumpers are going to come off of the catch. If he has the ball in his hands, he’s typically looking to attack — with his drives likely coming from the wing.

Puff Johnson is another UNC transfer who plays a significant role for Penn State. Johnson is a hybrid forward who likes to play bigger than he is — frame wise. Johnson will likely play a lot of small-ball four but is more impactful making high-energy plays. He has always has the ability to be a streaky shooter from the perimeter but has never taken the next step as a consistent perimeter threat.

Key Tendencies

Offensively, Penn State runs through its backcourt every possession. It’s clear Ace Baldwin and Kanye Clary are the two motors of the team — both scoring and playmaking. That duo combines for 41.5 percent of the total shot attempts per game for the Nittany Lions. Because of their quickness, Penn State likes to get out in transition. Despite the uptempo pace for Penn State, it’s not a team that will turn the ball over on a large scale — averaging jus 11 turnovers per game with a turnover rate that ranks 64th nationally. Penn State has six players attempting 2.7 3s or more per game but as a team, it converts on just 30.5 percent — ranked 306th. Regardless of who’s in the backcourt for Indiana basketball, they need to force the guards out of the paint and limit their driving ability.

Penn State is a high-pressure defense and is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers. On the season, the Nittany Lions rank 15th in the country in forced turnovers per game and also do an even better job at converting off of turnovers. They turn 15.9 turnovers per game into 16.9 points off turnovers per game — the best in the Big Ten. The ball pressure from its perimeter players force a lot of live ball turnovers, ranking 17th nationally in steal rate and turnover rate. While there isn’t a great amount of rim protection behind them, Qudus Wahab does a suitable job at forcing difficult shots at the rim. Indiana needs to do a good job at getting the ball in the paint and feeding the big men. Penn State doesn’t have the front court talent or depth to match up with Indiana basketball. Because of that, the foul rate for Penn State ranks 13th in the Big Ten, allowing opponents to get to the line over 20 times per game. If this is a guard-oriented game for Indiana, it’s not going to end well. The Hoosiers absolutely need to limit live ball turnovers in order to get back and set their defense up.

Overall, this is a game that Indiana has more overall talent in, but it’ll be a matter of if it has the mental toughness to withstand the gritty play of Penn State. Assuming Kanye Clary is fully healthy, the backcourt matchup will certainly tilt the favor Penn State’s way. Indiana needs to offset that with doing what it does best — protecting the paint and scoring in the paint. This is a critical game for Gabe Cupps who probably hasn’t seen this much ball pressure from opposing guards this year.

Projected Starters

G – Ace Baldwin (Senior; 6-0, 190)

Stats: 13.2 ppg, 5.0 apg, 2.9 spg

G – Kanye Clary (Sophomore; 5-11, 195)

Stats: 18.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 37.8% 3pt

F – Zach Hicks (Junior; 6-7, 185)

Stats: 6.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg

F – Nicholas Kern (Junior; 6-6, 190)

Stats: 7.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.1 spg

C – Qudus Wahab (Senior; 6-11, 240)

Stats: 9.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.4 bpg

Key Notes

Penn State forces 15.9 turnovers per game, leading the Big Ten and ranking 15th in the nation
Penn State’s +4.9 turnover margin ranks 10th in the country
Penn State looking for first win in Bloomington since 2014 — with the home team winning each of the last six regular-season matchups