Scouting Notes: Penn State

Indiana basketball stays home after its upset-win over No. 13 Purdue and faces Penn State on Wednesday night.

Penn State enters Wednesday’s matchup at 15.13 overall and 5-12 in Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions rank 60th in offensive efficiency with a rating of 115.1. Defensively, they rank 86th overall with a 102.8 rating. Overall, Penn State is ranked 67th in KenPom’s ratings.

Key Players

Penn State leans heavily on point guard Ace Baldwin — a very dynamic playmaker. Baldwin is a quick lefty guard who is a terrific passer and sets the tone offensively in terms of pacing and leadership. Baldwin is averaging 7.3 assists per game, ranking 5th in the nation and also third in the Big Ten in assist rate. Baldwin does a great job of passing his teammates open and finding the open lanes through opposing defenses. He’s a playmaker first and beats defenders with his ability to make plays for his teammates. He can also score, but he’s not as dynamic of efficient this year. His best skill is attacking the basket and using his quickness and elusiveness to finish around the rim. He’s shooting just 34 percent from the floor in his last 14 games, however. Indiana needs to force him to be a scorer, because if they allow him to become the playmaker he wants to be, it opens up everything for PSU. Defensively, he averages 2.3 steals per game, with 17 games of at least two steals.

On the wing is Zach Hicks, who is one of the most efficient players on the floor at all times — but also one of the lowest usage. He has the lowest usage rate of all main rotation players for Penn State but is tied for the highest offensive rating among rotation players, and second highest in the Big Ten. Hicks is mainly a three-point shooter, with 74 percent of his field goal attempts coming from three and 64 percent of his made field goals coming from three. Hicks has the 4th highest true shooting percent in the league and is second in made 3s on the season. He’s only made more than one 3 in 11 games but that’s only due to his usage — not his ability. IU needs to be ready to stay home on Hicks all night.

Yanic Konan Niederhauser is in the middle of the paint for Penn State and while he has good size and length, he’s not a big bruiser. Niederhauser is a traditional post player in the sense that he won’t be stepping out of the paint offensively and typically sees the majority of his action on the block, either dunking the ball or having rebound putbacks. He is best defensively, however, leading the Big Ten in blocks and block percentage.

Nicholas Kern is a versatile forward who is extremely athletic and can score in a variety of ways at the rim — and comes off the bench.  Ken sees almost all of his action inside the paint and uses his jumping ability and his length to finish at the rim and above defenders. Kern is not a threat from the perimeter, with just 12 made threes in 126 career games. When he’s attacking the rim, he’s looking to dunk the ball. But, most of his action is off of the ball, with little impact off of the dribble. Indiana basketball needs to keep an eye on him as he’s a very good cutter. Kern’s length allows him to switch on multiple ball handlers defensively. He’s struggled in the last five games, averaging just 7.4 points on 46 percent shooting from the floor — down nearly 12 percent from his season average. He had 21 points in the first matchup against Indiana.

D’Marco Dunn has been a really effective two-way player for the Nittany Lions. At 6-foot-4 and 185 pounds, he has great size and frame on both ends of the floor. Dunn can play both on and off the ball and has become a very consistent outside shooter — connecting on 38.8 percent from three. He’s stepped up over the last month, averaging 11.8 points and shooting 45.2 percent from three over the last eight games. He is becoming more of an all-around threat offensively and not a standstill shooter like he had been at times in the past. While he’s a very good shooter, he also looks to attack and doesn’t settle for 3s often.

In the backcourt is another versatile and athletic guard in Freddie Dilione. Dilione is long and athletic and the true definition of a slashing wing. He won’t be a threat from three — shooting just 28 percent on the year — but still looks to get up shots from the perimeter. He’s best attacking the basket and out in transition. In the past three games, he’s averaging 12.3 points a game. He has 15 games in double-figures this year and is an x-factor for the Nittany Lions offensively.

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Key Tendencies

Offensively, Penn State runs through its backcourt every possession. It’s clear Ace Baldwin is the motor of the team — both scoring and playmaking. Because of his quickness, Penn State likes to get out in transition. Despite some good shooters, Penn State is rather streaky from the outside, with 13 games of six or less made 3s. The Nittany Lions look to attack and get to the basket, with a free throw rate of 38.2 percent — the top in the Big Ten. They have nine games making at least 20 free throws and six games attempting 30. Most of the Penn State attack will come at the rim and in the paint, leading the Big Ten in points in the paint (39.1), and percent of points coming in the paint (49.2) — both ranking second among major conferences. In addition, 42 percent of their total field goal attempts come at the rim — tops in the Big Ten and among major conferences.

Defensivley is where Penn State makes its money — leading the Big Ten in steals per game (8.3) and turnovers forced (14.5). With length and athleticism at numerous positions, Penn State pressures the ball and will try to shoot the gaps leading to steals or looks in transition. Opposing teams have been able to take advantage of Penn State’s defensive rebound struggles, ranking 15th in the Big Ten. Indiana basketball has found success in second chance opportunities throughout Big Ten play.

Overall, Penn State is going to try to increase possessions and make it a hectic game. At times that has benefited Indiana basketball, other times it hasn’t. IU’s guard play needs to be at a high level to counter what Penn State will throw at them defensively. Indiana will have a drastic size advantage in the front court and will likely win the battle on the glass — two areas that IU needs to focus on. IU had 13 offensive rebounds in the first matchup, something it’ll look to replicate on Wednesday. If Indiana can limit live turnovers and win the rebounding battle — especially on the offensive glass — it should be a positive outcome for Indiana.

Projected Starters

G – Ace Baldwin (Senior; 6-0, 190)

Stats: 13.7 ppg, 7.3 apg, 2.3 apg

G – D’Marco Dunn (Junior; 6-5, 185)

Stats: 7.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 38.8% 3pt

G – Freddie Dilione (Sophomore; 6-5, 195)

Stats: 9.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.6 apg

F – Zach Hicks (Junior; 6-7, 185)

Stats: 11.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 40.5% 3pt

C -Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Junior; 6-10, 225)

Stats: 12.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg

Key Notes