Scouting Notes: Minnesota

Indiana basketball goes on the road for the final time of the 2023-24 season, traveling to Minnesota on Wednesday night.

Minnesota comes in with an 18-11 record overall and 9-9 record in Big Ten play. The Gophers are ranked 47th in the nation in offensive efficiency with a rating of 115.5. Defensively, their rating is 103.1, ranked 103rd nationally. Overall, Minnesota is rated 61st in the KenPom ratings.

Here is a deep dive into some of the challenges Minnesota could give the Indiana basketball program.

Key Players

Dawson Garcia enters as the top player for the Gophers. Garcia is an athletic and extremely skilled forward who can score at all three levels. The smooth lefty can play on the block both with his back to the basket or facing up. He has good ball handling ability as a forward that allows him to take defenders off of the dribble from the perimeter. While he’s shooting just 31.6 percent on 3s this season, he shot 34.5 percent or better in each of his previous three years, and is shooting 39 percent on 1.2 made 3s in his last 13 games. He’s at his best as a screener and rolling to about 15 feet. That’s his sweet spot where he can knock down the mid range shot or attack the paint with one or two dribbles. Once he’s inside 15 feet, he’s typically drawing a foul, attempting 6.3 per game — and making 84.5 percent. He ranks fourth in the Big Ten in fouls drawn per game. He’s scored 20+ points in seven of the last 13.

The motor of this team is Elijah Hawkins in the backcourt. The Howard transfer is second the nation in assists at 7.5 per game and has a 2.9 assist-to-turnover ratio. When the ball is in his hands, he’s looking to create off of the dribble. He has an assist rate of 39.1 percent, ranked ninth in the country. He set the Minnesota single-game assist record against IUPUI this season with 17 and set the single-season assist mark. His best asset is his ability to pass teammates open and make easy scoring opportunities with his vision. He can be flashy while also making the simple pass — something that can be easily overlooked. He’s a quick-twitch guard who can get into the lane, but his vision is exceptional even a few feet outside of the there-point line. Hawkins is a very good shooter as well, hitting 36.4 percent of his 3s. He’s shooting 40 percent on 1.8 made 3s this in conference games. Defensively, Hawkins averages 1.8 steals per game.

Cam Christie has emerged as a tremendous scoring option on the wing. The 6-foot-6 freshman has terrific size and some versatility to his game. While he’s best shooting on the wing, 42.2 percent on 2.2 made 3s per game, he can take defenders off of the dribble and finish either at the rim or in the mid-range area. Christie still needs ball screens to free himself on the perimeter, however. If the Indiana guards can fight through screens and force him to try and create for himself, his efficiency does go down a bit. 58.2 percent of his shot attempts this season are from three. He’s averaging 15.0 points per game in the last 10 games, with nine performances in double-figures.

In the backcourt, Mike Mitchell provides another terrific three point shooter after transferring in from Pepperdine. Mitchell is converting on 40 percent this season on 2.1 made 3s per game. But, that’s strictly what Mitchell is. While he does have some ability to attack off of the dribble, he’s best as a jump shooter. 60.3 percent of his attempts this season are from three and 56.8 percent of his made field goals in his career are 3s. He is terrific off of the catch or dribble and with his quick release, he’s very difficult to pressure. The Indiana basketball guards absolutely need to run him off of the perimeter and force him into the paint. He typically tris to avoid contact and will rarely try to score through it.

6-foot-8 and 250-pound Pharrel Payne has taken over the starting center role over the last month. Payne is a very physical post player who is best on the glass and defending the rim. He ranks seventh in the league in blocks as well as third in offensive rebound percentage. When he’s on the floor, he does a tremendous job sealing his defender and getting terrific positioning in the paint. All of his action comes on the block, posing as no real threat outside of five feet. His physicality will impact the Indiana basketball bigs.

Braeden Carrington is the main rotational piece off of the bench but is dealing with a concussion, so his status is TBD. Carrington is a high-volume shooter but not an efficient one. He shoots just 35.7 percent from the field and 22.4 percent from three — with 58.9 percent of his shots coming from three. He has only made more than one three in three games this year and has 14 games without one. At 6-foot-4 and 195 pounds, Carrington has a physical frame that allows him to take contact and finish at the rim. He also gets to the foul line nearly two times per game.

Key Tendencies

Minnesota plays team basketball on every single possession with a lot of different playmakers who provide great floor spacing. The best part of the Gophers offense is their ability to share the ball. Minnesota averages 17.7 assists per game — ninth in the nation — and have an assist on 65.6 percent of made field goals — third in the country. The offense is orchestrated by Elijah Hawkins and his ability to create easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. But, there are five players who can beat Indiana — all averaging at least nine points per game. The Gophers aren’t overly explosive in any area offensively but are very good in numerous areas, especially with its efficiency. Overall as a team, Minnesota shoots 36.3 percent with 8.1 makes per game. In the last eight games, however, they are shooting 43 percent as a team on 9.3 made 3s a game. If they miss, they clean up on the offensive glass as well, with a 31.2 percent offensive rebound rate. One area that they struggle with is live ball turnovers. opponents have a steal rate of 10.2 percent, ranked 277th nationally, so if Indiana basketball can get some easy transition opportunities and finally have its defense help its offense, it could go a long way in helping determine this one.

Defensively, Minnesota is very effective in the paint as well as defending the three — making life difficult on most opponents. The Gophers have a lot of versatility on the perimeter that allows for switches on ball screens or handoffs to limit easy or open looks from three. Opponents are able to get off just 26.7 percent of their overall shot attempts from three — ranked 27th in the country. Opponents are making just 6.3 3s per game. In the paint, Minnesota ranks fourth in Big Ten play at nearly five blocks per game. This lines up to be an ‘okay’ matchup for Indiana basketball as IU should be able to get decent looks inside the paint.

Overall, this is a game in which the Indiana basketball guards absolutely need to show up for. With the ability that Minnesota has to convert from the perimeter and score with its guards, Indiana must match that. Look for some double-teams to come on touches for Kel’el Ware and Malik Reneau, so if Indiana isn’t able to convert on some of the open shots it sees, it will be a long night offensively. On the flip side, Indiana has to limit what Elijah Hawkins does on the floor. Xavier Johnson will be tasked with defending him and he needs to have intense ball pressure to limit the vision — his best asset. Overhelping on dribble drives could be an issue in this one and Indiana must be able to close out to the numerous shooters on the floor. Opposing teams are having recent success against Minnesota’s three-point defense, shooting 41.5 percent on 9.1 made 3s in the last nine games. Could Indiana basketball have the same success?

Projected Starters

G – Elijah Hawkins (Junior; 5-11, 170)

Stats: 9.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 7.5 apg, 36.4% 3pt

G – Mike Mitchell (Junior; 6-2, 185)

Stats: 10.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.7 apg, 40% 3pt

G – Cam Christie (Freshman; 6-6, 190)

Stats: 11.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 42.2% 3pt

F – Dawson Garcia (Junior; 6-11, 230)

Stats: 17.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.8 apg

F – Pharrel Payne (Sophomore; 6-9, 255)

Stats: 10.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.5 bpg

Key Notes

• Elijah Hawkins broke the Minnesota single-season assist record earlier this month
• Hawkins ranks second in the nation in assists per game
• Minnesota is 16-2 when it has four or more players in double-digits
• Minnesota is 7-4 when scoring at least 70 points this season

SEE ALSO: How ‘trusting the process’ and ‘playing within the system’ has been instrumental in Mackenzie Mgbako’s surge for Indiana basketball

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