Quick Hitters: What to know about the Big Ten Tournament path for Indiana basketball

Indiana basketball enters the Big Ten Tournament winners in five of its last seven games and has been playing its best basketball this year over the last month.

The Hoosiers sit at the 9-seed, but may not need all that much work to sure up its NCAA Tournament at-large berth.

IU begins its Big Ten Tournament on Thursday at Noon on Big Ten Network.

Trending: 3 keys to a deep Big Ten Tournament run for Indiana basketball

Rematch with Oregon on deck: Indiana gets a rematch with Oregon just nine days after falling to the Ducks, 73-64, in Eugene. While the score looks one-sided, it was a one-point lead for Indiana before Oregon used a 10-0 run to seal the game, headlined by the Jackson Shelstad 35-foot three with four seconds on the shot clock. Indiana was very much in control at times last week but went just 2-of-12 over the final 8:19.

In addition, Mike Woodson was very open about his disgust with the officiating, something he discussed after the game — all relating to a 21-7 edge for the Ducks on free throw attempts. In a physical game in the paint — which was expected — IU center Oumar Ballo did not attempt a single free throw, just the second time all season that happened. He came in averaging 5.2 free throw attempts per game. Oregon center Nate Bittle was 8-of-8 from the line after averaging 2.9 attempts a game before Tuesday. His eight attempts were a season high.

While Indiana outscored Oregon by 15 on 3s — holding Oregon to just 24 percent — IU struggled on the glass and gave up 15 offensive rebounds for 23 second chance points.

This is a matchup that can go either way, but it’ll likely come down to 3s and second chance points, like it did last time. I don’t expect either to hold up the way it did just a little over a week ago.

Michigan State as the 1-seed is an appealing matchup for Indiana?: If Indiana were to win it would advance to play the 1-seed Michigan State Spartans. IU holds the 1-0 record against MSU this season with a 71-67 win in East Lansing — a game that started IU’s end of season run. This is a matchup where Indiana has a lot of advantages. From the front court play to three-point shooting, IU matches up very well against the Spartans. In the first matchup, Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau combined for 33 points and 22 rebounds — both with double-doubles. It also bodes well that Michigan State isn’t a three-point shooting team, ranking 357th nationally in percent of points from three. The Hoosiers struggle to keep pace consistently with teams that can light it up from the perimeter, but that’s not the Spartans.

So, with those two matchups in mind — it’s a game that seems to favor Indiana. If Indiana basketball gets past Oregon, it could be another successful end result against Michigan State.

Semifinal run is probably where Indiana maxes out: If Indiana were to make it to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, that would be a tremendous run. But, that’s likely where the Hoosiers would bow out. Indiana has been running on steam over the last month, doing everything it can to get back to a place where it can make the NCAA Tournament. At some point, some rest is needed. Indiana, if advancing to the semifinals, would face either UCLA or Wisconsin — in all likelihood. IU got smacked by Wisconsin in Madison earlier this year and lost by four to UCLA in Bloomington. Neither matchup is favorable for Indiana. Since 2010, a seed higher than six has made it to the championship just once (Penn State, 2023), and you have to go back to 2003 to see an 8/9 seed make the championship. IU, however, has made it to the semifinals in two of the last three years.

Between matchups and tournament trends, it’s likely that Indiana can win two, but trying to win that third will be a massive uphill battle. Either way, if you said two wins for IU in the Big Ten Tournament is what is possible, anyone would take that.

Just one win should lock up an at-large berth: Indiana did what it needed to do to end the season to put itself back, not only in play for the NCAA Tournament, but on the right side of the bubble. While nothing is a given during conference tournament week, IU is in a much better spot than if it lost to Ohio State on Saturday. The Hoosiers — while not entering the Big Ten Tournament with tremendous metrics — hold a 4-12 record in quad 1 games. That’s not great, but it’s not bad. The good thing is there are all quad 1 games from here on our for IU, so winning just one should be enough to fully lock up IU’s spot — if it’s not already.

Looking at other bubble teams that need more help than Indiana, Boise State lost to Colorado State earlier this weekend and now both teams sit on the wrong side of the bubble. Boise State plays San Diego State in the first round of the Mountain West Tournament and one of those two teams will be eliminated in all likelihood with a loss. Then, it’s likely a matchup with No. 1 seed New Mexico which could cement a spot for either team with a win. The path for Colorado State is much more difficult and likely needs a tournament title to get in. Texas is 5-10 in quad 1 games but also has four quad 2 losses — IU has zero. The Longhorns are on the outside looking in, now. Xavier? Just 1-8 in quad 1 games but have Marquette in its first game and then potentially St. John’s. Xavier is among the last four in in numerous projections. Oklahoma is just 6-12 in SEC play but have a 6-10 record in quad 1 games. They also have wins in the non-conference over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan. They start with Georgia and then a win has them face off against Kentucky.

All this is to say, while IU doesn’t have a tremendous record against quad 1 opponents, its work over the last month — wins over Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State — have IU in a much better spot. A loss and there will likely be some sweating throughout the week, but a win over Oregon and no matter what happens, that should be enough to have Indiana basketball solidly in the field, even with some other bubble movement.

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