Indiana basketball takes strategic approach to 2024-25 schedule

Indiana basketball had a rough nonconference to launch the 2023-24 season. While the Hoosiers didn’t beat any of the at-large tournament teams like UConn, Kansas, and Auburn, they also struggled in buy games, which vastly hurt their overall NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking. The NET has been a notable metric for several years now and has been proven to overvalue offensive and defensive efficiency margins. We have seen great examples of a program like BYU, who has manipulated the system to their advantage.

The Hoosiers have three goals going into the 2024-25 regular season: win the Big Ten championship, beat Purdue, and position themselves for an NCAA tournament run with a good seed. Indiana played too many close games against low-tiered NET teams, which anchored their NET metric between 90 and 110 for a majority of last season. Going .500 in conference still was not enough to move them much, all because of those close games that should have been blowouts. The key is to blow out bad teams and play good teams tough. Being able to balance the schedule for a new Indiana basketball roster while strategically organizing matchups for the team’s benefit takes some nuance and understanding.

Indiana basketball’s opening slate

Indiana opens up their slate with SIU Edwardsville and Eastern Illinois. Based on last season, these are the two lowest-ranked NET teams on the schedule. SIU Edwardsville was ranked 280th while Eastern Illinois was ranked 311th. These opening games should allow the roster to gel, come together, and dominate with a blowout victory. Such decisive victories are crucial for future metrics and seeding purposes. Last season, four of these types of games were decided by nine pointes or less. That can not happen again

Indiana’s first competitive stretch follows soon after, coming against a South Carolina team that overachieved a bit last season. Their head coach Lamont Paris was SEC Coach of the Year and a finalist for National Coach of the Year. The Gamecocks were ranked 51st on the NET last season, and a six seed in the NCAA tournament. A few days later, they get UNC Greensboro, a program that has won 20 or more games in seven of the last eight seasons. UNC Greensboro finished 132nd on the NET, and an Indiana win of at least 20 points will look very good for the metrics.

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High expectations at the Battle 4 Atlantis

A week later, Indiana basketball travels to the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. The lineup includes Arizona, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Louisville, Providence, West Virginia, and Davidson. This is a manageable tournament that is not too overloaded with powerhouses. However, that means the Hoosiers have to stay in the winners bracket or they will play lower quality opponents. Arizona and Gonzaga will be coming into the tournament with the most expectations along with the Hoosiers. Providence and Oklahoma should also be formidable.

The tournament knows how the teams are perceived going into the season. With this lineup of teams, Indiana should play a favorable matchup in Game 1. After a win, the real tournament starts, playing a team expected to be in the NCAA tournament. If Indiana comes in undefeated, beating Gonzaga and/or Arizona while going 3-0 puts Indiana in the Associated Press Top 10. From a marketing standpoint, this is a small victory on the national scale.

Indiana basketball finishes at Assembly Hall

To finish up the nonconference slate in December, Indiana has Sam Houston, who was 150th on the NET, and Miami (Ohio), who was 238th on the NET. After a brief Big Ten slate, Indiana finishes out the nonconference. They matchup against Chattanooga, who was 140th on the NET, and Winthrop, who was 181st on the NET. Sam Houston, Chattanooga, and Winthrop fall in a similar category as UNC Greensboro. A win over these middle level NET programs by at least 20 points looks very good metrics wise. These are also games where a close win does not hurt their metrics as much as a low value opponent. These are NET values from last season, but there was a clear strategy here. Create a promising schedule to boost seeding for the NCAA tournament.

It seems like the Indiana basketball staff believes they have a chance to win at least 13 games in the Big Ten with plenty of opportunities for big wins against high-value teams. This nonconference schedule does not have a “wow factor” with stacked programs, but from a metrics standpoint, it was very well done. It still needs to be executed correctly, but so far this offseason, this Indiana staff has been one of the best in the country.

Final thoughts

Indiana’s approach to the 2024-25 season is strategic, not reckless. The focus is on beating more middle tier teams, dominating weaker teams, and playing strong against tougher competition. If executed well, this plan could position the Hoosiers favorably for the NCAA tournament and achieving their goals. A higher seed should yield better matchups and opportunities in the tournament, and a chance to get the programs first Final Four since 2002.

SEE ALSO: The schedule is what it is for Indiana basketball. Now it’s a matter of if it comes back to bite them or not.

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