The schedule is what it is for Indiana basketball. Now it’s a matter of if it comes back to bite them or not.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind — Indiana basketball released its non-conference schedule on Tuesday morning and minutes later became the ridicule and dissection of every game and what it means for Indiana next season. Indiana, which is coming off of a missed NCAA Tournament last year, was in a nearly similar dilemma after releasing its out of conference slate a season ago. Are there comparisons this year? Yes. Are there differences? Of course. So, what to make of the non-conference in 2024-25 — let’s dive in a bit.

There’s no question the slate of games released on Tuesday were underwhelming. That is clear. The most notable known non-conference game is South Carolina at home — a team that, while made the NCAA Tournament last year, will be a much different team heading into this season after losing some notable transfers in the offseason. Last year, they finished the season ranked 54th in KenPom’s ratings which would have been IU’s fourth-toughest non-conference game last year (UConn, 1; Auburn, 4; Kansas, 27). So already there’s some concern over the overall strength of the schedule based on that.

The marquee matchup(s) for Indiana basketball is clearly the Battle 4 Atlantis event in the Bahamas over Thanksgiving. Teams like Gonzaga, Arizona, Providence — all likely top-25 teams to some point during the season — headline the event. West Virginia, Oklahoma, Davidson and Louisville round out the group. So, there are clearly some major opponents that’ll come from the week down south.

While matchups aren’t known yet, Indiana will likely be in the more difficult side of the bracket with Gonzaga, an expected top-5 team, on the opposite side. So that could mean two potential matchups with Arizona and Providence. That’ll give Indiana two possible notable matchups. As of now, Gonzaga ranks No. 9, Arizona is No. 10 and Providence is No. 60 in the Bart Torvik projections heading into the season.

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How this year’s non-conference matches up to last year … and what it means for Indiana basketball

Photo By Andrew Mascharka/Indiana Athletics

Looking a bit deeper into the rest of the schedule, four of the other opponents are ranked between 113 and 175 in Torvik’s projections — Sam Houston State, Chattanooga, Winthrop and UNC-Greensboro in that order. Only two of Indiana’s non-high major opponents in the non-conference last year finished with a better rating than 175. So, the metrics pass the preseason test that this non-conference could end up being ‘more difficult’ than a season ago.

Last year, Indiana was taken down to the wire against an Army team inside of Assembly Hall that finished the year ranked 344th in KenPom’s ratings. It was taken down to the wire against Florida Gulf Coast, which finished 241st.

So what does that all mean — Indiana’s non-conference will be made or lost in Atlantis. Indiana can not simply limp through the non-conference home games like it did last season and expect to be *fine* throughout the season. There was a reason IU’s metrics took a massive tumble despite winning those games — dropping 10 spots after the first three games of the year and 17 spots by the end of non-conference play.

History hasn’t been on Indiana’s side against marquee opponents, however. In the last six major non-Big Ten matchups, it has been blowout after blowout. It lost by 20 to UConn (at MSG), 28 to Auburn (at Atlanta), five to Kansas (Assembly Hall) last year and 24 to Arizona (Las Vegas) and 22 to Kansas (Allen Fieldhouse) the year before.

After not helping themselves over the last few years in the non-high major games, it was again a complete disaster in the signature non-conference games. That can’t happen in 2024-25 if Indiana basketball wants to land on a good seed line — with the full assumption this team should make the NCAA Tournament.

While Mike Woodson believes he’s testing his team this season in the non-conference, it appears that he believes the three games in Atlantis will be enough to round out IU’s non-conference slate. It may be — or it may not.

Unfortunately, there’s nothing it can do about it now — Indiana made its bed and it’ll have to lie in it … regardless of what happens.

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