Scouting Notes: Oregon

Indiana basketball stays out west for its final true road game of the year against the Oregon Ducks.

Oregon enters Tuesday’s matchup at 21-8 overall and 10-8 in Big Ten play. The Ducks rank 35th in offensive efficiency with a rating of 117.8. Defensively, they rank 40th overall with a 98.2 rating. Overall, Oregon is ranked 33rd in KenPom’s ratings.

Key Players

Oregon is a very balanced and well-rounded team but it relies heavily on what forward Nate Bittle can do. Bittle can do a little bit of everything on the offensive end whether it’s facing up, playing with his back to the basket or being utilized in pick and pop and pick and roll sets. He has great size and length but can also add athleticism to any matchup as well. Bittle will be used everywhere on the floor and likely be a matchup problem at times for Oumar Ballo — especially if Oregon takes him away from the paint. Defensively, Bittle is one of the best shot blockers in the Big Ten and even impacts more shots than the 2.2 that he blocks every game. Bittle has taken his game to another level during Oregon’s recent 5-game winning streak, averaging 17.6 points and 3.6 blocks a game.

Jackson Shelstad is the motor for Oregon and when he plays well, so does Oregon. Shelstad has great understanding of pace and change of speed. He’s very deliberate when attacking the basket and looking to score — something he can do at all three levels. His game starts with his ability to shoot from three, shooting 39.7 percent on the season and 47.4 percent in Big Ten play. He’s tremendous finding space off of the dribble and is a terrific pull-up shooter in transition — a major key for Indiana basketball to find him in transition and pick him up in the open floor. Shelstad has a quick burst and first step that allows him to get to his spots from about 15-17 feet and can finish with a jumper or floater. While he’s a good playmaker for his teammates, he’s not looking to pass first, or second when he has the ball in his hands. He rarely turns the ball over, however, with 25 games of two or less turnovers.

In the backcourt with Shelstad is Keeshawn Barthelemy. Barthelemy is a terrific guard next to Shelstad and is someone else who can create his own shot. He’s a terrific shooter at 43.2 percent but doesn’t settle for contested looks often. Barthelemy has a terrific first step and has a very bouncy guard who easily gets to his spots in the mid range and can stop on a dime and pull up for an uncontested 15 footer. If he gets the defender on his hip, it’s over for the defense as his quickness and athleticism allows him to finish easily at the rim. He’s a difficult guard to defend because he can create on his own and doesn’t need a screener to get him open. There will likely be a lot of 1-on-1 defense from Indiana basketball. His scoring average is the key number — as Oregon is 13-3 when he scores 10+ points.

TJ Bamba is a strong, physical and high motor wing who is best on defense. Bamba averages 1.9 steals per game and is first in the league in steal rate. He’s terrific off the ball getting into passing lanes and using a surprise double to get his hands on the ball. IU needs to be aware of him every possession as he’s truly a hybrid type defender that will likely switch off to nearly every position. Offensively, Bamba is a driver and is limited in his perimeter game — just 8-of-40 from three since the calendar turned to January. Bamba is also a strong playmaker with 16 games of 3+ assists. Indiana basketball needs to force Bamba into jumpers and limit his ability to get into the paint. This would likely be Mackenzie Mgbako’s matchup, but with Mgbako’s lack of physicality at times, it may be a game with limited minutes.

In the front court with Bittle is Brandon Angel. Like Bittle, Angel can post up or play in the pick and pop game – hitting 35.6 percent of his 3s but just 9-of-33 in the past 16 games. He’s not someone that will see the majority of the touches through specific sets, but he plays hard and finds the ball in broken plays. While he’s not a terrific offensive rebounder, Indiana needs to make sure it has a body on him because he’ll find a way to make a few plays from rebound put backs.

Jadrian Tracey is a good player off of the bench for the Ducks and is best shooting the ball, converting on 36.1 percent. 59 percent of his made field goals the past four games have been 3s and 53 percent of his field goal attempts this season are from three. He has good size and length and has some slashing ability, but he’ll make most of his impact as a shooter or on the defensive end.

Another long, athletic and versatile player off the Ducks bench is Kwame Evans. Evans has yet to really take off in his college career because he will settle for contested jumpers instead of continuing to use his length around the basket and as a slasher. He’s not a good shooter, converting on just 26.1 percent over this two seasons. Evans is Oregon’s strongest offensive rebounder so IU will need to keep an eye out for him when the shot goes up.

Supreme Cook is a strong and physical presence for Oregon but isn’t necessarily very effective or efficient. He is slightly undersized at the center position — at just 6-foot-8 — but is the second-best offensive rebounder for the Ducks. He’s best at getting on the glass and finishing through contact in the paint and right at the rim.

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Key Tendencies

Oregon’s offense starts and ends with its ability to shoot 3s. The Ducks are one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league and connect on 35.6 percent in Big Ten play — and are making 8.2 a game. With five players attempting 3+ 3s a game, the Ducks are getting 33.4 percent of their total points from three — third-best in the Big Ten. The Ducks aren’t a quick team or a team that likes to push the pace, so its ability to connect on 3s in sometimes limited possession games really tilts the scale in their favor. It makes it even harder for opposing teams to defend Oregon when turnovers are limited, just 10 a game in conference play. Oregon isn’t a team that is going to beat you on 2s, ranked 17th in the league in percent of points from 2s — also ranked 14th in two-point field goal percent. The Ducks also aren’t going to be very aggressive attacking the basket and getting to the foul line, ranking 16th in the league in free throw rate and 15th in free throws attempted.

Defensively, Oregon does a good job guarding 1-on-1 with its size, versatility and skillset on the perimeter. With limited help defense that opens things up for offenses, opponents are held to an assist rate of just 47.5, second-lowest in the conference. That limits opponents from getting a lot of open looks from three, with just 28.9 percent of points coming on 3s. The reason to play more straight up on the wing and drives is because of the shot blocking ability of Bittle. Bittle ranks 2nd in the Big Ten in blocks and 6th in defensive +/-.

Overall, Indiana basketball needs to be ready for a physical battle from the start and a high-energy defensive group from Oregon. The Hoosiers needs their bigs to stay out of foul trouble in order to compete with Bittle up front, something to watch for when both he and Angel like to spread the floor on the perimeter. Indiana has struggled this season containing opposing teams from three, with eight of the last 13 opponents shooting at least 35 percent. The one positive, is only one of the last eight teams have hit double-digit 3s. The three-point line needs to be a point of emphasis on Tuesday night.

Projected Starters

G – Jackson Shelstad (Sophomore; 6-0, 175)

Stats: 13.7 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.7 apg, 39.7% 3pt

G – Keeshawn Barthelemy (Senior; 6-2, 180)

Stats: 10.2 ppg, 2.6 apg, 43.2% 3pt

G – TJ Bamba (Senior; 6-5, 220)

Stats: 10.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.9 spg

F –  Brandon Angel (Senior; 6-8, 230)

Stats: 8.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 35.6% 3pg

C – Nathan Bittle (Senior; 7-0, 240)

Stats: 13.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg

Key Notes

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