Scouting Notes: Ohio State

Indiana basketball is coming off of one of the worst losses in the Mike Woodson era, a 25-point home loss to Illinois — back-to-back 25-point losses. Now, it travels Ohio State to face the Buckeyes.

Ohio State enters Friday’s matchup at 10-7 overall and 2-4 in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes rank 44th in offensive efficiency with a rating of 115.7. Defensively, they rank 29th overall with a 96.6 rating. Overall, the Buckeyes rank 31st in KenPom’s ratings.

Here is a deep dive into some of the challenges Ohio State could give the Indiana basketball program.

Key Players

Ohio State goes as Bruce Thornton goes. Whether it’s scoring or making plays for teammates, a lot of that responsibility falls on the ball of the Ohio State point guard. His efficiency is off the charts, making him extremely difficult to defend. He ranks third in the Big Ten in offensive rating and is shooting 53.1 percent from the floor, 43.3 percent from three and 83.9 percent from the foul line. He also has a 2.7 assist-to-turnover ratio, with just two games this year finishing with more than two turnovers. Over the last seven games he’s averaging 20.9 points per game and shooting 63.2 percent on 2s. While he’s hitting a career high from long distance, his game starts with his slashing ability. With his frame, he has a great ability to get his defender on his hip and force fouls at will. He’s shooting nearly six free throws a game and ranks 10th in the league in free throw attempts. Overall, he impacts winning and makes winning plays — ranked second in the league in win shares.

In the front court is one of the most improved players from a stats perspective. Devin Royal has seen a significant jump during his sophomore season and uses his versatile skillset to his advantage. As an undersized 4 at 6-foot-6, he uses his physical frame to bully opponents inside the paint. While Royal can hit from the outside, he’s most impactful as a face up hybrid forward or with his back to the basket on a smaller opponent. After a hot start to the season, he’s hit a bit of a wall, however. In the past six games he’s down from 16.6 points per game and 61.1 percent shooting to 10.5 points on 36.2 percent shooting. What Indiana basketball will have to defend against is his ability to rebound the ball, ranking 5th in the Big Ten in offensive rebound rate.

In the backcourt with Thornton is freshman guard John Mobley. The sharpshooter is the only Big Ten player to make a three in every game this season. Nearly 50 percent of his shot attempts this year are from three with 57.8 percent of his made shots coming from three. He has seven games this year with at least three made 3s. Despite being known for a shooter, he can also create and cause contact at the rim. He’s attempting nearly three free throws a game. Only 26 percent of his points this year are coming from 2s.

On the wing is another versatile forward in Micah Parrish. With good size and frame — at 6-foot-6 and 190 pounds — Parrish is not someone who is going to be the focal point offensively, but he always quietly ‘gets his’. Not many sets are truly run for him but because of his toughness and motor, he finds ways to impact the game. Defensively is where Parrish impacts the game the most, both as an on-ball and off-ball defender. With his length, he can get in passing lanes and impact shots. He may not always be someone who fills up the stat sheet, but his impact is felt.

Sean Stewart is the de-facto ‘5’ for the Buckeyes but is undersized at the position. While he has tremendous athleticism and length, he gives up a lot of weight to opposing big men. Despite that, it’s his motor and toughness that excels and gives Ohio State the flexibility with him at that spot. But, on the flip side, he leads the Big Ten in fouls. He’s not a huge threat offensively because of his inability to stretch the floor — just one three-pointer attempted all season.

Aaron Bradshaw comes off the bench for Ohio State and provides size, length and athleticism at the 5 spot as well. He’s averaging 7.7 points and 3.9 rebounds a game. Since returning from a leave of absence from the program, he’s been a bright spot for a team that is rather limited off of the bench. His motor defensively as a rim protector is a great boost when he takes the place of Stewart. While he has good size at 7-foot-1, he’s not an overly productive rebounder — just two games above three rebounds this year. He’s much more of an offensive threat in the paint that Stewart.

Another versatile hybrid forward is Evan Mahaffey. The 6-foot-6, 200-pound wing is a defensive-minded player who can guard 1-4. He’s also a very good rebounder. He ranks in the top-15 in the Big Ten in steal percentage, block percentage, offensive rebound rate and blocks.

Key Tendencies

Ohio State is undersized but make up for it with its physicality at nearly every position. Offensively, the Buckeyes are deliberate in its action, a vast difference from Illinois and Iowa. The Buckeyes rank 169th in adjusted tempo and 192nd in average possession length. With that, Ohio State hasn’t been as efficient in conference play as the non-conference. Ranked 14th in offensive efficiency in conference play, the Buckeyes have seen its scoring dip by nearly 10 points and its shooting percentage dip by nearly seven percent. The scoring is due to the inconsistencies from three — shooting just 29.2 percent from the perimeter in Big Ten games. The big part of the lack of success for Ohio State has been its inability to get off to quick starts, whether it was 32 to Maryland, 17 to Wisconsin or others. While it has been streaky for the Buckeyes, Indiana basketball needs to contain the dribble drive, likely more on Friday than any other game this season. With little post presence for Ohio State, it’s going to rely heavily on the ability of its guards — and mainly Thornton — to get into the paint and force the defense to collapse. That’s what has led to its success this year. What’s notable is the steal percentage for opposing teams. Ohio State is the best in the country in limiting live-ball turnovers. IU will also need to limit OSU’s ability to get to the foul line. They rank in the top 20 percent in the country in free throw rate and see early a quarter of its points come from the foul line.

Defensively, it’s a grind it out mentality for the Buckeyes. Ohio State will use its physical style of play both on the perimeter and in the paint. But, that translates into a ranking of 307th nationally in foul rate, with opposing teams getting over a quarter of their points from the foul line. With the length and athleticism that it has on the wing, Ohio State has multiple players who can guard numerous positions as well as switch on ball screens and weave action if need be. Most of opposing team’s success comes off of 1-on-1 action or at the foul line, with limited assist opportunities.

Indiana basketball will have to work on the offensive end, and will need to take full advantage of any opportunity it has going to the foul line. Depending on the status of Oumar Ballo, IU’s advantage in the paint could be severely limited or turned into a disadvantage if he’s not able to go. Indiana needs to take any ability in transition and push the pace. Overall, if Indiana basketball gets off to a slow start like it has, it will be extremely costly as Ohio State only gets better — and tougher — as the game goes on.

Projected Starters

G – Bruce Thornton (Junior; 6-2, 215)

Stats: 17.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.4 apg, 43.3% 3pt

G – John Mobley (Freshman; 6-1, 175)

Stats: 11.9 ppg, 43% 3pt

G – Micah Parrish (Senior; 6-6, 190)

Stats: 10.0 ppg, 4.5 apg, 34.3% 3pt

F – Devin Royal (Sophomore; 6-6, 210)

Stats: 13.8 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.1 spg

F – Sean Stewart (Sophomore; 6-9, 230)

Stats: 6.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg

Key Notes