Scouting Notes: Ohio State

Indiana basketball heads into the final regular game of the season, and of Mike Woodson’s tenure at IU, as Ohio State comes to Assembly Hall.

Ohio State enters Saturday’s matchup at 17-13 overall and 9-10 in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes rank 25th in offensive efficiency with a rating of 119.0. Defensively, they rank 52nd overall with a 99.7 rating. Overall, the Buckeyes rank 34th in KenPom’s ratings.

Here is a deep dive into some of the challenges Ohio State could give the Indiana basketball program.

Key Players

Ohio State goes as Bruce Thornton goes. Whether it’s scoring or making plays for teammates, a lot of that responsibility falls on the ball of the Ohio State point guard. His efficiency is off the charts, making him extremely difficult to defend. He ranks first in the Big Ten in offensive rating, offensive win shares and offensive +/-, and is shooting 50.7 percent from the floor, 43.2 percent from three and 84.1 percent from the foul line. He also has a 3.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, with just three games this year finishing with more than two turnovers. He has 13 games with 20+ points, including three 30+ point games. While he’s hitting a career high from long distance, his game starts with his slashing ability. With his frame, he has a great ability to get his defender on his hip and force fouls at will. He’s shooting nearly five free throws a game and ranks 13th in the league in free throw attempts. Overall, he impacts winning and makes winning plays.

In the front court is one of the most improved players from a stats perspective. Devin Royal has seen a significant jump during his sophomore season and uses his versatile skillset to his advantage. As an undersized 4 at 6-foot-6, he uses his physical frame to bully opponents inside the paint. While Royal can hit from the outside, he’s most impactful as a face up hybrid forward or with his back to the basket on a smaller opponent. After a hot start to the year, he’s been very inconsistent over the last month. In the past eight games he’s scored in single-digits five times, doing so just five times in the first 21 games. What Indiana basketball will have to defend against is his ability to rebound the ball, ranking 8th in the Big Ten in offensive rebound rate. He didn’t play in the first matchup.

In the backcourt with Thornton is freshman guard John Mobley. The sharpshooter has made at least one three in all but one game this year. 58 percent of his attempts and made field goals are 3s. He has 15 games this year with at least three made 3s — hitting five against Indiana in the first matchup. He’s terrific in catch and shoot opportunities and needs little space to get his shot up. Despite being known for a shooter, he can also create contact at the rim. He’s attempting nearly three free throws a game. Only 26 percent of his points this year are coming from 2s.

On the wing is another versatile forward in Micah Parrish. With good size and frame — at 6-foot-6 and 190 pounds — Parrish spent the first half of the year as someone who wasn’t a consistent focal point offensively, but he always quietly ‘got his’. Because of his toughness and motor, he finds ways to impact the game. In the last 13 games, including the first matchup with IU, he’s averaging 16.8 points and shooting 37.3 percent on 2.4 made 3s a game. He’s had five 20+ point games over that span, too. Defensively is where Parrish impacts the game the most, both as an on-ball and off-ball defender. With his length, he can get in passing lanes and impact shots. He may not always be someone who fills up the stat sheet, but his impact is felt.

Sean Stewart is the de-facto ‘5’ for the Buckeyes but is undersized at the position. While he has tremendous athleticism and length, he gives up a lot of weight to opposing big men. Despite that, it’s his motor and toughness that excels and gives Ohio State the flexibility with him at that spot. But, on the flip side, he leads the Big Ten in fouls. He’s not a huge threat offensively because of his inability to stretch the floor — just two 3s attempted all season.

Aaron Bradshaw comes off the bench for Ohio State and provides size, length and athleticism at the 5 spot as well. He’s averaging 6.5 points and 2.7 rebounds a game. Since returning from a leave of absence from the program, he’s been a bright spot for a team that is rather limited off of the bench. His motor defensively as a rim protector is a great boost when he takes the place of Stewart. While he has good size at 7-foot-1, he’s not an overly productive rebounder — just three games above three rebounds this year. He’s much more of an offensive threat in the paint that Stewart.

Another versatile hybrid forward is Evan Mahaffey. The 6-foot-6, 200-pound wing is a defensive-minded player who can guard 1-4. He’s also a very good rebounder. He ranks in the top-15 in the Big Ten in steal percentage, block percentage, offensive rebound rate and defensive +/-.

Key Tendencies

Ohio State is undersized but make up for it with its physicality at nearly every position. Offensively, the Buckeyes are deliberate in its action, ranking 169th in adjusted tempo and 231st in average possession length. With that, Ohio State hasn’t been as efficient in conference play as the non-conference, but has seen a major uptick with its ability to hit 3s. Averaging 37.5 percent as a team over the last 12 games, that’s up from 30.7 percent the previous 10 games before. While it has been streaky for the Buckeyes, Indiana basketball needs to contain the dribble drive. With little post presence for Ohio State, it’s going to rely heavily on the ability of its guards — and mainly Thornton — to get into the paint and force the defense to collapse. That’s what has led to its success this year. They won’t hunt 3s too frequently, but can get hot in a hurry. What’s notable is the steal percentage for opposing teams. Ohio State is the best in the conference in limiting live-ball turnovers. IU will also need to limit OSU’s ability to get to the foul line. They rank 5th in the league in free throw rate and 3rd in percent of points from the foul line.

Defensively, it’s a grind it out mentality for the Buckeyes. Ohio State will use its physical style of play both on the perimeter and in the paint. But, that translates into a ranking of 330th nationally in foul rate, with opposing teams getting over a quarter of their points from the foul line. With the length and athleticism that it has on the wing, Ohio State has multiple players who can guard numerous positions as well as switch on ball screens and weave action if need be. Most of opposing team’s success comes off of 1-on-1 action or at the foul line, with limited assist opportunities.

Indiana basketball will have to work on the offensive end, and will need to take full advantage of any opportunity it has going to the foul line. IU’s advantage in the paint is notable and will be the strength of its gameplan. Opposing teams are also very effective on the offensive glass against the Buckeyes, typically a strength for the Hoosiers. Indiana needs to take any ability in transition and push the pace. Overall, if Indiana basketball gets off to a slow start, it will be extremely costly as Ohio State only gets better — and tougher — as the game goes on.

Of note, Thornton, Parrish and Mobley combined for 59 of OSU’s 76 points in the first matchup, with no other player carving more than five points.

Projected Starters

G – Bruce Thornton (Junior; 6-2, 215)

Stats: 17.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 43.2% 3pt

G – John Mobley (Freshman; 6-1, 175)

Stats: 13.4 ppg, 40.2% 3pt

G – Micah Parrish (Senior; 6-6, 190)

Stats: 13.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.6 apg 36% 3pt

F – Devin Royal (Sophomore; 6-6, 210)

Stats: 13.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg

F – Sean Stewart (Sophomore; 6-9, 230)

Stats: 5.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg

Key Notes