After missing out on Derik Queen, what’s next for Indiana basketball and where does it turn? Here’s how it could force Mike Woodson’s hand

It’s official — five-star center Derik Queen is off the board, just to Maryland instead of the Indiana basketball program. After a back-and-forth, the final decision was officially announced on Wednesday. So, where does Indiana go from here?

For starters, this doesn’t change a great deal. Indiana basketball needed to hit the transfer portal extremely hard this spring, regardless of the decision from Queen. But, this now opens up the door for what could end up being a blessing in disguise.

Bear with me.

Indiana has gone with two traditional big men for quite some time and that has been the focal point of the Mike Woodson offense. But now it has the opportunity to change — and it needs to do so in order to get back to competing at a national level.

Indiana will — likely — return Malik Reneau, a solid piece to build around in your front front court. While foul trouble has been an issue as of late, he’s had a terrific season in most areas.

You have a fantastic freshman coming in with five-star wing Liam McNeeley. Not only does he bring versatility and an ability to play on and off the ball, he brings a much needed shooting and shot making ability to the roster.

If Trey Galloway decides to use his covid year, you have another nice piece — but not someone who can be a 1A or 1B type player. Outside of Gabe Cupps and likely Payton Sparks, Indiana’s roster is nearly all up in the air.

So while solidifying the front court will need to be addressed, that’s not the important piece to next year’s potential success.

Mike Woodson needs to recruit small and versatility in the transfer portal. If not, it will be yet another failed offseason.

Why?

UConn, Kansas, Baylor, Villanova — the last four National Champions. What do they all have in common? A smaller, more versatile and guard heavy lineup.

Even more importantly, they all had a significant piece to the puzzle — a hybrid and more perimeter oriented ‘4’. UConn had Alex Karaban. Kansas had Jalen Wilson. Baylor had Matthew Mayer. Virginia had De’Andre Hunter and Villanova had Eric Paschall. All five players were non-post up players who were confined to the the paint.

What else? Guard play and versatile wings. From Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton to Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun. To Baylor who mastered it to perfection with Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell and Adam Flagler.

Or Villanova with Jalen Brunson, Mikel Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo, Phil Booth and more.

Indiana hasn’t had either. That inability to stretch the floor and open up the paint has been painful to watch.

So, a second year with Mackenzie Mgbako could be the recruiting ‘win’ Indiana needs. How do you make that pitch to a guy who everyone knew wanted to be a one-and-done? Play him at a more comfortable position. He’s your small ball 4.

While Mgbako’s year hasn’t gone according to plan, it hasn’t been bad either. It took a while to really get going but he’s emerged as one of the better and more important freshmen in the country.

He’s now scored in double figures in 17 of the last 20 games, including six games of at least 15 points. He’s also shooting 35.9 percent from three with 1.7 makes per game.

In his last 10 games, Mgbako is averaging 14.1 points per game while shooting 34 percent from three. He’s hit at least two 3s in seven of the 10 games.

There have been moments this season when Mgbako played significant minutes at the 4. Two of the most recent resulted in strong performances. He turned in a double-double against Illinois and then had a career high 20 points against Northwestern.

“Our strengths (this year) have been Big fell (Kel’el Ware) and Malik inside,” Woodson said after the Illinois loss. ” … but Mack made some big time plays inside. That was promising to see. That could possibly be a weapon down the stretch run here in terms of posting him some.”

Unfortunately, because of Ware and Reneau, it hasn’t been a weapon. Mainly because Mgbako hasn’t been used in that role much outside of the Northwestern game.

“Yeah, we can experiment with that a little bit,” Woodson said of Mgbako’s fit at the 4 after the Northwestern loss. “It looked pretty good tonight, but they were small, too. You know, it didn’t hurt us. When teams are playing bigger 4s that can be tougher for Mackenzie as well. Can be tough for the guys that are possibly guarding him too as well. Something to think about.”

There’s no denying that Mgbako has been the most consistent and willing shooter from the perimeter, and he’s succeeded for the most part.

And, it’s no secret that Indiana basketball has failed to perform from three at the level it needs to. Indiana is shooting just 32.8 percent from three — ranked 217 in the country. It has a three-point shot attempt rate that ranks 328th nationally. And, just 21.1 percent of its total points come from the perimeter this year — ranked 351st nationally. That results in just 5.1 made 3s per game on 15.6 attempts per game — both ranked 340th or worse.

Mgbako is just an example. There will be hundreds of potential players to slide into a small ball 4 role … and hundreds more who can play both on and off of the ball as playmaking guards.

“(It’s) Simple. You watched the same game I did. You got to make shots,” Woodson said of their offense. “We had some good looks and we just didn’t knock them down. Nothing scientific about it. We moved the ball well enough to get open shots. You got to step up and make them. It’s that simple.”

Nothing scientific about it, yet the roster was not constructed to have shooters or put them in successful positions.

That can all change this offseason — and needs to.

So, while losing out on Derik Queen — an extremely talented player — will hurt in some aspects, at the end of the day it could be exactly what Indiana basketball needed to take its offense to a new and much-needed level.

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